There really isn't a lot to tell. Lots of product with few sales. Buyers were eager to get to Santa Monica, buy what they absolutely had to and leave. Distributors were left holding films that will be discounted at the next market where Buyers will pick up a movie or two for a song (possibly a dance too, but mainly the song).
Bill Martell has a great wrap up here and recounts our phone conversation as I drove back to Hollywood in shock. Bill and I go to AFM every year and occasionally (always) have a beer (twenty) and discuss what we've seen. This year he didn't feel compelled to go on Sunday, and I was able to wrap most of my business up then and seek out new business on Monday.
Bill calls his post "Is Cinema Dead?" and I have to disagree with the phrasing. I may be splitting hairs here, but I'd rather call his post "How has Cinema Changed and Why Hasn't the Business Changed to Meet it?" We discussed this over the phone - not only regarding a specific project we have together and how we're going to produce it well, but how we - the creative folk - are going to have to approach the business.
This ain't your father's movie business anymore. Not even at the studio level. It's not even a movie business per se, but an intellectual property business. That's due to a variety of factors we're going to have to discuss in the Electrogram. It's scary and it's exciting and it's different than to what you've grown accustomed...
But ultimately I think it's going to be far better for those looking to make their first break into media. There will be more opportunity and the possibility of more reward - more people seeing your work, more people in your genre niche seeing your work, better trend spotting, higher production value, more unusual storytelling options and choices and yes, monetization.
More later.
Showing posts with label AFM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AFM. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Sunday, November 08, 2009
AFM 2009: Sunday, Day One
If you've been following my tweets (@madpulpbastard) you already know how little I think of this year's AFM. I feel forced, after just one day here to call it as I see it - AFM is Broken.
I only have this computer for a little while so I'll be brief. There is an incredible chasm between the huge blockbuster movies and the low/no budget fare here in Santa Monica. No one has any interest in anything in between and there is little interest in the other ends of the spectrum.
Being that it's Sunday - I am prepared to give the market a bit of slack - but I can't see the momentum picking up anytime soon. There is a malaise here that borders on comatose. Distributors are actually forced to listen to wanna be producers pitches in the hallways. The Lobbyists - the Hollywood Reporter's terminology for those who seek financing for their "projects" - are in full force and yet they aren't even smoozing with their usual vigor. I haven't even been offered a free drink yet!
It's clear to me that unless you are already ensconced in a production deal with financing that the whole affair has to be rethought to bring it into line with the realities of the business as it is right now and how it will be in the next five years. I had a meeting five months ago on a movie that was seeking completion funding in exchange for N. American (US and Canada) rights. It was a light crime movie with a B-name cast. I politely told them they could expect about $50K for those rights, that they wouldn't have a theatrical premiere unless they financed it and that they would still have to spend more money to get it to the point to sell it to a distributor --- so they could get the money to finish the movie.
They politely declined and walked away thinking they could get a better deal. They told me they would see me at AFM. Their movie isn't here. It isn't anywhere (that I can find).
I say this not to kick those guys down - they made a choice. I tell this tale because:
It's going to get worse / different / crazy before things pick back up.
And that pick up will be a totally different animal than the AFM beast we are dealing with now. I think that beast is lying on the Serengeti plain with its tusks removed.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Catching My Breath...
It has been one hell of a couple of weeks, and I am looking forward to the holidays where I can collapse and get something resembling sleep.
For those of you who don't know already, my mother has been in the hospital for the past couple of days having 4 ft. of her intestines removed and a herniation repair. With two surgeons and an extra 2 hrs. on the table she came out a-okay and is finally out of the hospital ICU and in her own room.
I, of course have been stuck here performing my duties for my clients at AFM.
(Long intake then exhale of air)
Several of you have asked, and no there hasn't been anything surprising at AFM, except for maybe what passes as acceptable behavior on the part of producers, and what they consider to be a "commercial" project. A-mazing.
Producers: (title given with tongue firmly wedged in cheek)
- Deodorant is not an option.
- No, you don't look hip and cool in that t-shirt. Or that ice cream suit with lime shirt. Or that hat. Or that spandex that says"Camel Toes R Us."
- Honey, put your plastic boobs back in the bra. I ain't buying your movie.
- Get a haircut. After you first wash that greasy mop. And shave while you're at it.
- I don't care if they were on "One Tree Hill" (in the background) they are NOT a star.
- Relax. Just tell me what your movie is about -not its "themes, motifs or breath-taking locations." Your story is what hooks me. Nothing else.
- Yes, your key art is ugly.
- Everyone has a project. No one has a script, a budget, or a cast. No one has done their homework.
- No, I don't like your title (Somebody said their werewolf picture was called FOUR DAYS -- for the 4 days a month of a full moon. When I pointed out that there was only one true full moon per month and two 98% moons (one before and one after) he said nothing and walked away).
- Japan makes (and sells) a lot of movies that will never get any play here in the states. No judgments made with that statement just the facts.
- More and more people are shooting HD. It is not a selling point. I mean really - who cares? It's great for technically-minded folks, but not for sales people.
- No, I will not give you free advice on how to fix your poster after you've seen our portfolio, and know that we deliver.
- I said "no." You can leave now.
More later...with a post about how "pulp filmmaking is taking over the UK."
For those of you who don't know already, my mother has been in the hospital for the past couple of days having 4 ft. of her intestines removed and a herniation repair. With two surgeons and an extra 2 hrs. on the table she came out a-okay and is finally out of the hospital ICU and in her own room.
I, of course have been stuck here performing my duties for my clients at AFM.
(Long intake then exhale of air)
Several of you have asked, and no there hasn't been anything surprising at AFM, except for maybe what passes as acceptable behavior on the part of producers, and what they consider to be a "commercial" project. A-mazing.
Producers: (title given with tongue firmly wedged in cheek)
- Deodorant is not an option.
- No, you don't look hip and cool in that t-shirt. Or that ice cream suit with lime shirt. Or that hat. Or that spandex that says"Camel Toes R Us."
- Honey, put your plastic boobs back in the bra. I ain't buying your movie.
- Get a haircut. After you first wash that greasy mop. And shave while you're at it.
- I don't care if they were on "One Tree Hill" (in the background) they are NOT a star.
- Relax. Just tell me what your movie is about -not its "themes, motifs or breath-taking locations." Your story is what hooks me. Nothing else.
- Yes, your key art is ugly.
- Everyone has a project. No one has a script, a budget, or a cast. No one has done their homework.
- No, I don't like your title (Somebody said their werewolf picture was called FOUR DAYS -- for the 4 days a month of a full moon. When I pointed out that there was only one true full moon per month and two 98% moons (one before and one after) he said nothing and walked away).
- Japan makes (and sells) a lot of movies that will never get any play here in the states. No judgments made with that statement just the facts.
- More and more people are shooting HD. It is not a selling point. I mean really - who cares? It's great for technically-minded folks, but not for sales people.
- No, I will not give you free advice on how to fix your poster after you've seen our portfolio, and know that we deliver.
- I said "no." You can leave now.
More later...with a post about how "pulp filmmaking is taking over the UK."
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Still at AFM...
Slugging it out on this last day before it's all packed up and gone.
Traffic is light and sellers are uneasy (not quite worried, they understand current economics). Attended the "International Film Financing in a Weak Dollar Economy" seminar sponsored by the PGA and the WGA sponsored "The Internet: Where Commerce meets Entertainment."
Let's just say that people all over the world are understanding the pulp economic theory.
There are folks here I wouldn't let onto my front lawn much less a posh hotel lobby - but there they are... selling, pitching, trying to let everyone know how creative they are by dressing funny and not bathing (not joking). And as much as I despise these hangers-on whose projects no one in their right minds would ever finance in a million years - these are my people.
I went by the MAGNOLIA PICTURES suite and managed to get myself a screener of NOT QUITE HOLLYWOOD along with a collector's book of the movie and a t-shirt. Swag!
I will review this along with SPLINTER sometime soon. (To be truthful, I should have had the SPLINTER review out much earlier but life intruded). Let's just say that both movies are the awesome and should be on your shelves, in your computers or your DVRs.
Saw Jeff O'Brien & Brett Kelly's movie PREY FOR THE BEAST.
Traffic is light and sellers are uneasy (not quite worried, they understand current economics). Attended the "International Film Financing in a Weak Dollar Economy" seminar sponsored by the PGA and the WGA sponsored "The Internet: Where Commerce meets Entertainment."
Let's just say that people all over the world are understanding the pulp economic theory.
There are folks here I wouldn't let onto my front lawn much less a posh hotel lobby - but there they are... selling, pitching, trying to let everyone know how creative they are by dressing funny and not bathing (not joking). And as much as I despise these hangers-on whose projects no one in their right minds would ever finance in a million years - these are my people.
I went by the MAGNOLIA PICTURES suite and managed to get myself a screener of NOT QUITE HOLLYWOOD along with a collector's book of the movie and a t-shirt. Swag!
I will review this along with SPLINTER sometime soon. (To be truthful, I should have had the SPLINTER review out much earlier but life intruded). Let's just say that both movies are the awesome and should be on your shelves, in your computers or your DVRs.
Saw Jeff O'Brien & Brett Kelly's movie PREY FOR THE BEAST.
Monday, November 10, 2008
I'm At AFM...
Which is why I have been quiet. Too enmeshed in the "Giant Used-Car Lot of Movies."
Saw Bill Martell yesterday and we are hatching plans.
Will post more after they unlock the doors of the Loews, and I emerge bloody and triumphant.
(Beats chest and gnashes teeth)
Because yes, that's what it takes, kids.
This is indie film.
Pussies need not apply.
Saw Bill Martell yesterday and we are hatching plans.
Will post more after they unlock the doors of the Loews, and I emerge bloody and triumphant.
(Beats chest and gnashes teeth)
Because yes, that's what it takes, kids.
This is indie film.
Pussies need not apply.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Indie Film Financing Now Follows Pulp Formula
From Today's Variety commenting on the upcoming American Film Market:
Banks are also becoming more selective in the projects they take on. Comedies, action, horror and thrillers are easier to finance, but dramas require the involvement of major actors. "All those themes that used to dominate the independent space -- death, suicide, social causes, women's issues -- are tough to get financed. I can't get the presales or have the confidence to cover my gaps," Hutkin says.
Well, duh.
And that's not to say that these dramas are bad films. It's saying that dramas are a much smaller audience than the average moviegoer demographic. If a movie has a huge budget it NEEDS a huge audience. Dramas traditionally don't deliver those numbers.
Answer - make these dramas inexpensively. Make it to fit the audience and their needs and don't try to shoe horn it into mainstream audience wants and needs.
To take this further: One of the largest publishers in the world of romantic fiction (what some have termed "Women's fiction") is Harlequin. They publish many volumes of affordable romance novels every month, and they have even branched out into online romance fiction.
In other words: They make them cheap, relevant to the audience, and in bulk. They don't put all of their financing eggs in one basket, on one book, nor even on just one romantic theme (click the list of their imprints on their web page). They see lots of little niches and inexpensively come in and fill them.
Now imagine applying that strategy to indie movies and TV. Instead of these bloated $100 million indie dramas about sharecroppers in the 1930's, you would get more intimate movies that cost $10M. Because seriously, the cost to shoot a field crop with a camera costs the same whether it's a $100M or a $10M film. You could send two guys out with a camera or you could send ten, and that little image inside the frame would look the same...
And that is all that counts.
This economic downturn is the reality check the Hollywood system has needed. Anyone can make a watchable film at a $100M budget... it takes a genius to produce one for next to nothing. That's when you know whether or not the writer, director, DP and actors (as well as the crew) have the chops and the drive to really entertain you. The $100M film has such a steep hill to climb to make money it's almost a losing proposition from the start - especially so for movies with niche appeal. If it fails, people are out of jobs. The doors close.
But if you make that niche movie for next to nothing and it fails? Well then banks and other lenders don't go out of business. People move on to the next one...and maybe if you're good enough they'll take a chance on you and finance your project.
Banks are also becoming more selective in the projects they take on. Comedies, action, horror and thrillers are easier to finance, but dramas require the involvement of major actors. "All those themes that used to dominate the independent space -- death, suicide, social causes, women's issues -- are tough to get financed. I can't get the presales or have the confidence to cover my gaps," Hutkin says.
Well, duh.
And that's not to say that these dramas are bad films. It's saying that dramas are a much smaller audience than the average moviegoer demographic. If a movie has a huge budget it NEEDS a huge audience. Dramas traditionally don't deliver those numbers.
Answer - make these dramas inexpensively. Make it to fit the audience and their needs and don't try to shoe horn it into mainstream audience wants and needs.
To take this further: One of the largest publishers in the world of romantic fiction (what some have termed "Women's fiction") is Harlequin. They publish many volumes of affordable romance novels every month, and they have even branched out into online romance fiction.
In other words: They make them cheap, relevant to the audience, and in bulk. They don't put all of their financing eggs in one basket, on one book, nor even on just one romantic theme (click the list of their imprints on their web page). They see lots of little niches and inexpensively come in and fill them.
Now imagine applying that strategy to indie movies and TV. Instead of these bloated $100 million indie dramas about sharecroppers in the 1930's, you would get more intimate movies that cost $10M. Because seriously, the cost to shoot a field crop with a camera costs the same whether it's a $100M or a $10M film. You could send two guys out with a camera or you could send ten, and that little image inside the frame would look the same...
And that is all that counts.
This economic downturn is the reality check the Hollywood system has needed. Anyone can make a watchable film at a $100M budget... it takes a genius to produce one for next to nothing. That's when you know whether or not the writer, director, DP and actors (as well as the crew) have the chops and the drive to really entertain you. The $100M film has such a steep hill to climb to make money it's almost a losing proposition from the start - especially so for movies with niche appeal. If it fails, people are out of jobs. The doors close.
But if you make that niche movie for next to nothing and it fails? Well then banks and other lenders don't go out of business. People move on to the next one...and maybe if you're good enough they'll take a chance on you and finance your project.
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
What's It Worth In Today's Market?
Every annual AFM issue of The Hollywood Reporter has a column called "The Going Rate" which estimates prices various territories are paying for "all rights to theatrical films in Overseas Markets."
***Disclaimer***
Per THR, this list is only meant as an approximate guidleine to launch negotiations and are not sanctioned by any industry organization. Per me, I am only listing the information related to films made for $750k - $1M as this is closer to budgets for first timers than any other. THR also lists information on budgets from: $1-3M, $3-6M and $6-12M.
So, if you produced a movie for between $750K -1M then you could expect to negotiate for the following for all rights in that particular territory:
EUROPE:
France $30-60K
Germany/Austria $30 - 75K
Greece $5-10K
Italy $30-60K
Netherlands $10-25K
Portugal $5-10K
Scandinavia $30-60K
Spain $30-60K
UK $40-80
ASIA / PACIFIC RIM:
Austrailia/New Zealand $15-30K
Hong Kong $3-5K
Indonesia $5-10K
Japan $40-80K
Malaysia $3-5K
Philippines $3-5K
Singapore $3-5K
South Korea $20-50K
Taiwan $5-15K
LATIN AMERICA:
Argentina/Paraguay/Uruguay $2-5K
Bolia/Ecuador/Peru $1-3K
Brazil $15-30K
Chile $2-5K
Colombia $2-5K
Mexico $15-30K
Venezuela $2-5K
EASTERN EUROPE:
Czech Republic/Slovakia $5-10K
Former Yugoslavia $2-5K
Hungary $10-20K
Poland $5-10K
Russia $20-50K
OTHERS:
China $3-5K
India $5-10K
Israel $2-5K
Middle East $2-5K
South Africa $5-10K
Turkey $10-20K
What the list isn't telling you how to sell the territories and in what order. For example, you can't sell Japan before Korea because the discs will mysteriously end up in Korea and Taiwan and selling on the streets.
Same goes for Turkey and Greece. If it goes for sale in Greece, it will be bought and copied and on the streets in Istanbul within a week.
The trick is to always sell for the best possible return, which doesn't mean selling all rights (DVD, cable and free tv) right away. You should sell according to the territories demand. Free TV in India doesn't get you anything (or it didn't used to), but VCD and DVD does.
There's also the taste factor to include in the sales plan. Certain territories buy more of a certain type of film. Example: India and the Middle East don't buy a lot of porn.
Now there's a few smart ones out there who are asking, "Why are you showing us this, Bill?"
I'm showing you all this because this system, these rates, the distributors, salespeople, sell sheets and posters and a whole ton of other "middleman" factors are all going the way of the dinosaur.
More later.
***Disclaimer***
Per THR, this list is only meant as an approximate guidleine to launch negotiations and are not sanctioned by any industry organization. Per me, I am only listing the information related to films made for $750k - $1M as this is closer to budgets for first timers than any other. THR also lists information on budgets from: $1-3M, $3-6M and $6-12M.
So, if you produced a movie for between $750K -1M then you could expect to negotiate for the following for all rights in that particular territory:
EUROPE:
France $30-60K
Germany/Austria $30 - 75K
Greece $5-10K
Italy $30-60K
Netherlands $10-25K
Portugal $5-10K
Scandinavia $30-60K
Spain $30-60K
UK $40-80
ASIA / PACIFIC RIM:
Austrailia/New Zealand $15-30K
Hong Kong $3-5K
Indonesia $5-10K
Japan $40-80K
Malaysia $3-5K
Philippines $3-5K
Singapore $3-5K
South Korea $20-50K
Taiwan $5-15K
LATIN AMERICA:
Argentina/Paraguay/Uruguay $2-5K
Bolia/Ecuador/Peru $1-3K
Brazil $15-30K
Chile $2-5K
Colombia $2-5K
Mexico $15-30K
Venezuela $2-5K
EASTERN EUROPE:
Czech Republic/Slovakia $5-10K
Former Yugoslavia $2-5K
Hungary $10-20K
Poland $5-10K
Russia $20-50K
OTHERS:
China $3-5K
India $5-10K
Israel $2-5K
Middle East $2-5K
South Africa $5-10K
Turkey $10-20K
What the list isn't telling you how to sell the territories and in what order. For example, you can't sell Japan before Korea because the discs will mysteriously end up in Korea and Taiwan and selling on the streets.
Same goes for Turkey and Greece. If it goes for sale in Greece, it will be bought and copied and on the streets in Istanbul within a week.
The trick is to always sell for the best possible return, which doesn't mean selling all rights (DVD, cable and free tv) right away. You should sell according to the territories demand. Free TV in India doesn't get you anything (or it didn't used to), but VCD and DVD does.
There's also the taste factor to include in the sales plan. Certain territories buy more of a certain type of film. Example: India and the Middle East don't buy a lot of porn.
Now there's a few smart ones out there who are asking, "Why are you showing us this, Bill?"
I'm showing you all this because this system, these rates, the distributors, salespeople, sell sheets and posters and a whole ton of other "middleman" factors are all going the way of the dinosaur.
More later.
Friday, November 02, 2007
Heading Out...
Later this afternoon to the AFM in Santa Monica. The ASC is conducting a seminar on how to get the best look for your low budget film.
From Sunday onward, I will be there in SM attending seminars, shaking hands and "hawking my wares" (or is that hocking?).
I'll come back with news and pictures of what I see there at the Loew's. I am hoping to capture some of the "players" on video and sit them down for short interviews.
We'll see what happens.
From Sunday onward, I will be there in SM attending seminars, shaking hands and "hawking my wares" (or is that hocking?).
I'll come back with news and pictures of what I see there at the Loew's. I am hoping to capture some of the "players" on video and sit them down for short interviews.
We'll see what happens.
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